In June, AbbVie unveiled top-line results from the phase 3 Measure Up 1 study for Rinvoq, which topped placebo in terms of reducing symptoms and clearing skin at 16 weeks.
In a note to investors at the time, SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges said Rinvoq’s data could help it secure a place as the standard of care for patients who cannot tolerate or don’t respond to biologics like Dupixent. But winning previously untreated patients will be a challenge, Porges said, due to Rinvoq’s JAK class warning label.
“Despite the compelling efficacy results (potentially superior to Dupixent) and a consistent safety profile, we expect Rinvoq to capture only limited share in the first-line setting given its class labeling of serious infection, malignancy and thrombosis warnings,” Porges wrote. “For most younger patients, Dupixent is still likely to be the first choice given its combined robust efficacy and remarkable safety.”
Even so, Porges said three pivotal trial wins in atopic dermatitis—two down, so far—and a green light from regulators could be a boon for Rinvoq’s sales.
An eczema nod could chip in up to $2 billion in peak sales to SVB’s forecast of $5 billion per year in peak sales without it, Porges said.
But Dupixent, with $832 million in first-quarter sales, is also on the move. In June, the drug scored an approval in China to treat atopic dermatitis, expanding its marketing range to 60 countries.
Earlier in the month, Sanofi and Regeneron laid out a plan to get Dupixent up to $11 billion in annual sales, centered on adding five new indications: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, eosinophilic esophagitis, prurigo nodularis, chronic spontaneous urticaria—otherwise known as chronic hives—and bullous pemphigoid.